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More rational Indian airline industry could emerge post-COVID-19 | 更多理性的印度航空公司可能会在新冠疫情之后出现

Posted on March 09 2021

More rational Indian airline industry could emerge post-COVID-19 | 更多理性的印度航空公司可能会在新冠疫情之后出现 cheryl.heng@av… Tue, 03/09/2021 - 04:25

由于规模庞大,印度航空市场一直对航空公司具有巨大的吸引力,但该市场的盈利能力仍然难以捉摸。

在国际方面,海外航空公司在进入这个市场方面比本地航空公司更成功。但是,印度低成本航空公司向国际市场的扩张、以及新冠疫情对国际航空市场的破坏,在一定程度上改变了这种局面。

在国内方面,激烈的竞争和产能过剩阻碍了航空公司的财务收益。2020年5月恢复国内服务后,印度政府对印度航空公司设定了一个运力上限以保证社交距离,当时上限是其正常国内运力的33%,另外对票价了设了上限。后来运力限制逐渐降低,到2020年12月增加到正常国内运力的80%。下图显示,到2021年1月份,印度国内市场客座量已接近去年同期水平的75%。

 

在新冠疫情危机中,印度的民航业可能会更为理性。特别是国际需求可能需要一些时间才能恢复,这将对运力造成下行压力。但是行业本身的结构变化也将对运力恢复有所帮助。

在“国家概况:印度”电子书中可获得更多印度的商业和国防数据。 点击此处即刻下载。

The Indian airline market has always had huge potential for airlines due to its size, but profitability has remained elusive.

On the international side, overseas airlines have traditionally been more successful than local airlines in tapping into this market. However, the expansion of India’s LCCs into the international market and the disruption of international services by the pandemic have changed this dynamic somewhat.  

On the domestic front, strong competition and excess capacity growth have hindered financial returns. When domestic services resumed in May 2020, the government imposed a cap of 33% of normal domestic capacity for Indian carriers, as well as fare caps. The capacity limit was gradually lifted, increasing to 80% in December 2020. The chart below shows that domestic seat capacity has reached almost 75% of year-ago levels by January. 

 

A much more rational airline industry in India could emerge from the COVID-19 crisis. International demand, in particular, is likely to take some time to recover, which will put downward pressure on capacity. But structural changes within the industry itself will also help.

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